Threading the Weather Needle

It’s five-thirty, and the sun has already slipped below the horizon. Sunrise doesn’t arrive until after seven in the morning. And, night-time temperatures are consistently down into single digit territory.  All, clear signs that it’s autumn here in northern New Zealand. 

The sun setting, earlier each night, as autumn envelops the Bay of Islands, New Zealand

We don’t mind cool nights. But there comes a point when, in the absence of a heating system, cool starts feeling cold – unpleasantly so.  When sleeping requires woolly socks and multiple layers of clothing.  And, cuddling becomes mandatory.

Socks on our snuggling feet as we attempt to stay warm

We’d experienced the same unmistakable signs of seasonal change six weeks ago in the camper van prior to leaving the South Island. Our escape to the relative warmth of the North Island provided a welcome reprieve – down here, north is warmer, and south is colder. All the while, knowing it wouldn’t last. Still, we embraced the chance to resume wearing shorts and tee-shirts. And, to sleep sans socks.

Planning our landfall in Fiji – a nation of more than 110 inhabited islands

Now, our comeuppance has arrived.  And our attention has shifted to our next destination. To the tropical islands of Fiji, more than a thousand miles, and a week of open ocean sailing, north. 

Up there, the seasonal change means something different – the end of tropical cyclone (a.k.a. hurricane) season.  The threat of which, reflected in our insurance policy, requires Turtlebones to remain in New Zealand waters until after May 1st

Looking at the big picture weather, trying to get a feel for the pattern of frontal systems

We’ve been tracking the evolving weather patterns carefully for weeks – fronts, lows, the phases of the moon. Now that we’re free to leave, our appetite for meteorological information has blossomed into something approaching obsession. Each day, we spend hours poring over the latest data – wind speed and direction, wave heights and periods. We run endless departure scenarios on our computer using six different weather forecasting models.

Charting the all-important wind speed and direction forecast for our passage

Ideally, we like enough wind to have a nice fast passage, and motor as little as possible. But not so much wind that the seas get ugly and uncomfortable. Less than 3 meters, please. Plus, we’d prefer not to fight our way into headwinds, or squalls. Fair winds side-on is the goal.

We’re not alone in this relentless pursuit of what we sailors call the ‘the right weather window’.  Others are doing the same – sailors from around the globe who’ve spent the off-season here in New Zealand.

Predict Wind allows us to simulate our passage using 6 different weather models

Most we’ve never met. But a surprising number are people who we crossed paths with during our 2023 Pacific crossing.  We spot them, then Sharon or I whisper ‘isn’t that so and so’ or ‘you know, we met them in…’.   Inevitably, neither we nor they can recall people names. It’s common practice to revert to boat names instead – we’re often greeted with a ‘hey Turtlebones’. Last week, I asked a young lady “aren’t you a Water Dog”. Under different circumstances, such an opener might warrant a haughty response, or worse.  She smiled warmly, and said “yes, didn’t we last see you in Suwarrow”.

Sailors from various lands, including the crew of Water Dogs from Newfoundland, congregate for a potluck dinner ashore on Suwarrow in 2023

We still have a few boat projects to attend to before we leave New Zealand. But the list has shrunk down to the nasty bits I’ve been avoiding.  Turtlebones and her crew are ready.

New Zealand has been marvelous, and its people wonderfully warm.  Soon, we’ll be exploring a new country, and immersing ourselves in a different culture – Fiji.

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17 Comments

  1. What a lovely post, Bill! Perfect way to start my middle of the night “sleep break.” (washing away the sour taste of the Trump dream I woke up in the middle of). You two inspire me. I recognized the group photo before I read the caption, but when I did see the date it really hit me: You two have completely transformed your lives. This can no longer qualify as perhaps a lark or a phase (forgive me the thought, please — I didn’t know i was harboring it until reading “2023”). New lives. The real deal. Bravo!

    1. Hello Brad, I’m delighted by the thought my modest post helped rid your surreal mind of the Trump madness, if only briefly, and provided a degree of respite. All of us need some mental refuge in order to retain our sanity and optimism in these very trying times. Without that the orange lunatic, and his cadre of crackpots, criminals and cowards, win by default.
      Sharon and I are enjoying life. The big transformation in our lives, however, isn’t really our globetrotting aboard Turtlebones. It’s us having the great good fortune of being together as life partners. And at this stage of our lives, having the luxury of relatively good health, and the freedom to do as we wish. Sailing now, but we share an impossibly long list of things we desire to pursue.
      That said, Sharon and I are both news junkies. So the world’s chaos, wars and suffering are inescapable realities we can’t ignore, nor do we wish to.

  2. safe sail to Fiji…..keep your adventure coming our way
    love and cheers
    Ginny and Gord

    1. Thank you Ginny and Gord! We look forward to catching up and spend time together when we’re back home.

    1. Thanks Kim,
      I hope you and Dave are doing well. I imagine you’re getting your lovely garden ready for another glorious summer, and looking forward to time at the lake. See you in the fall.

    1. Thanks Joy.

      We’re still enjoying the many delights of New Zealand. We’ll keep you posted on our departure.

    1. Hello Nancy,
      I hope your cruising of the Greek islands continues to go well. Summer will be in full bloom by the time you return to Halifax.
      Hugs to you and Shawn

  3. I love reading about your adventures, thank you for keeping us all in the loop.
    It’s amazing what you two are doing….so much planning goes into it, as a person travelling on land we don’t worry so much about winds!! Safe sailing to Fiji islands, and that’s another decision…which ones will you go to?!

    1. Thanks Linda,
      You’re right. At sea weather makes a huge difference to almost every facet of our lives. During the last week alone, we’ve moved the boat several times as the winds changed direction. On Sunday we anchored in a lovely little bay and were perfectly sheltered because the wind was out of the west. By the next morning we had to leave because the winds picked up and shifted to the southeast rendering that bay completely untenable. Even thought we found a more protected anchorage in another bay a few miles away, the strong winds kicked up the waves to a point where going ashore would have been wet and unpleasant. However, by evening the winds had dropped, and the bay was smooth as glass.
      Bill

      1. PS – I get it, Gump, you don’t need to worry about the winds on your roadtrip adventures around the USA. But I can’t help wondering about blow-hards you might encounter along the way! 😂

    1. Hi Shawn,

      Yes, we will be using Starlink while on passage. And in doing so, sadly, we’ll be contributing the wealth of one of the world’s most loathsome people.
      Hopefully, alternatives will emerge.
      Bill

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