Found!

Well I must admit I am impressed. Who would have believed the Easter Bunny would find us 590 (nm) nautical miles offshore! I do think he must be suffering from cutbacks because of the economy as there were no pretty colours, and the artwork is a little kindergarten level, but no complaints. He also left little chocolate eggs on the boat!

Just to put this in context, a nm is about 1.85 kilometers (often rounded to 2x for quick estimates), so we are about 1100 kilometers offshore. This would be from our place in downtown Toronto to Edmonston (northern) NB – about a 10 hour drive. A little slower by boat.

I was going to start with another sunrise picture but figured people might be getting tired of these. Well get over it! We are out in the ocean with nothing around us for many, many miles and mostly (no complaints), it is just more of the same. Don’t expect that every post we will have dolphins or whales or the Easter Bunny dropping aboard!

So with that warning I am going to move onto some geeky updates.

Yesterday Bill and I updated his Pacific Island charts on the Raymarine chart plotter. Another quick kudo to the Starlink that has been operating with 99% uptime and when I tested this morning, 110 megabytes per second download speed. Keep in mind with the Iridium system we had a budget of 50 megabytes per month, so about 1/2 second on the Starlink. The charts are now totally up to date and we can drill down in detail on all the Pacific Islands.

Our target destination is Hiva Oa, which is down near the bottom of the chart picture above. This is one of two islands in the group you need to go to first to check in through Customs and Immigration. Currently Hiva Oa is 2,209 nm from our current position.

The next thing we did was play with the “polars” of the boat and see the impact on the proposed course. No, we were not visited by penguins or bears. Polars are your best estimate of how the boat will perform in different conditions – what if the wind is in front of you and your are beating into it? On the beam (90 degrees to the boat) or behind you and you are going downwind?

Previously our estimate was 6 knots into the wind, 10 on the beam and 7 downwind. But there are many other factors – how big are the waves, how strong are the winds? Once the winds get too strong you reduce sail and don’t go faster regardless. We decided that we were being too optimistic with the winds on the beam (that we would average 10 knots), so dropped it to 9 knots. We definitely hit 10 knots, just not on average over many hours.

So remember how before the course took us way west towards Hawaii and then, like a hockey stick, switched and dropped south to the Marquesas? Now all of a sudden the majority of the models start heading southwest almost immediately! Note: Bill and I run these separately on our computers as it acts as a cross check – good thing as for a while I was trying to take us to the Christmas Islands!

So this is a sidebar rant about “computer algorithms and optimization routines”. Keep in mind I spent 35 years writing software for optimizing financial plans, so I am a strong believer that there is value in them, but they are guidance not answers.

I mentioned that I finished a book called The Loop a couple days ago. Nancy and I had seen Jacob on a panel discussion at the Toronto International Festival of Authors at Harbourfront in the Fall. He expresses concerns (understatement) that all the algorithms using our data and AI/machine learning are not wrong, but they are not great, and they are constructed to appeal to our System 1 thinking – fast, automatic, unthinking. Convenience wins over the chore/hard work of actually thinking about it (System 2).

An example would be the algorithms that help pick the music I like when I log into Amazon Music. Usually it does a great job – I am pegged as a 66 year old folkie and the tunes are the ones that Nancy and I automatically recognize and start humming or singing to. The problem is not what it brings to me (which I love), but the things it never will because I have never picked them before. For music, the way I might break The Loop is to go out for a night at the Hugh’s Room Live with Nancy, Brian and Mary and get introduced to amazing artists I have never seen or heard before. When I get home if I search them I might find a few songs or an album and hopefully they will surface for me in the future.

The problem is, even though fun work, it is work to go out to something new. These algorithms are now optimizing everything – an example telling companies where to spend their advertising dollars for best engagement and results. It will come as no surprise that real news sources and investigative journalism and now listed as “brand damaging” by many algorithms as you “do not want your brand associated with bad news from the world”. Better if you advertise where people see puppy and kitty videos. As advertising revenues continue to drop for credible news outlets, is it any wonder we are ending up with a more fractured society?

So rant finished, just that what Bill and I experienced was a good example of algorithms being limited and giving a “good general answer” but not necessarily what we need. Because previously there was a 3 to 4 knot speed advantage to keeping the wind on the beam, the software basically worked out courses that kept us 90 degrees to the wind heading west then 90 degrees to the beam heading south. It’s “objective function” was to get us to the Marquesas in the shortest time and the speed difference made up for the difference of travelling 250 to 300 extra miles.

So some change to the plan, we will now start heading south sooner. The winds are lighter so we will fly one of the light wind colourful sails up front (making up for the Easter Bunny’s B&W delivery). It will be good to get the kinks out in the light of day.

My final kink to work out (it is now 8am and I expect to see Bill and Sharon arise any time), is another critical consideration – making a coffee!

You may remember some talk about a generator? Bill and Sharon tried amazingly hard to “get off fossil fuels”. For the last month in Puerta Vallarta, although tied up on the dock they were not connected to shore power to “pre-test” the ability for the upgraded solar to manage the energy needs. With 3 people aboard the answer was “can’t be done”, hence the generator.

They were still trying to cook with the induction stovetop and avoid the propane stove but the reality of this at sea has taught us a bit more. At 5am it is impossible to make a coffee (life and death issue folks)! During the day with sunlight on the solar, the inverter has enough juice coming in to make it work. As well, when the generator runs (about supper time) to top up the batteries, more than enough to cover all AC needs. But at night in the dark with no generator, the induction stove could not even heat to 80C without making the inverter burp – losing power as it rebooted, rebooting the Starlink and then trying again to get up to “warm water”.

The other issue was a simple mechanical one – at sea we are bouncing around and the pots/kettle slide off the induction stove top. So you are obliged to stand by the stove, one hand on the pot and wait, and wait. Even when Sharon and Bill were making supper last night, the callisthenics as they tried chopping veggies one handed or quickly to get a hand onto whatever was about to fall, was entertaining.

So bottom line, last night I got my coffee, but fossil fuels provided the heat. Issues to solve another day!